Multivariate Autoregressive Modelling of fMRI time series

We propose the use of Multivariate Autoregressive (MAR) models of fMRI time series to make inferences about functional integration within the human brain. The method is demonstrated with synthetic and real data showing how such models are able to characterise inter-regional dependence. We extend linear MAR models to accommodate nonlinear interactions to model top-down modulatory processes with bilinear terms. MAR models are time series models and thereby model temporal order within measured brain activity. A further benefit of the MAR approach is that connectivity maps may contain loops, yet exact inference can proceed within a linear framework. Model order selection and parameter estimation are implemented using Bayesian methods.